Climate Change and Rising Wildfire Danger in the UK: What the Science Shows

Rob Beeson
Dec 11, 2025
3 min read

Wildfire has always been part of the British landscape, but recent events have shown how quickly conditions can change and how vulnerable our uplands can be. This scientific study examines how climate change will affect fire danger across the UK in the decades ahead. The findings matter for those who manage moorland, protect wildlife, and look after rural communities.

A Changing Climate Means Higher Fire Danger

The study used UKCP18 climate projections to model how warmer temperatures, lower humidity, and shifting rainfall patterns will influence fire danger. The conclusion is clear: fire danger increases across the whole of the UK throughout the 21st century.

By the 2080s, southern and eastern England could see three to four times more high-danger days than today. Northern England and parts of Scotland also face a notable rise. The pattern is unmistakable. Conditions that allow fires to start and spread are becoming more frequent.

Why Conditions Are Changing

The research shows that two factors drive most of the increased danger:

Higher temperatures account for roughly half of the increase.
Lower relative humidity is responsible for most of the rest.

Rainfall changes also play a role, particularly in the south where summer rain is expected to fall by as much as 30–50% under high-emissions scenarios. Wind speeds are projected to decrease slightly, which softens but does not offset the rising danger.

These shifts dry out vegetation more quickly. Fine fuels - the grasses, mosses, and surface litter common on British heaths and moors - become more flammable during long, warm, dry spells.

Where the Risk Rises the Most

The study looks at several indices used by the Met Office, Natural Resources Wales, and the UK Wildfire Forums. All show a similar pattern:

South and East England

These areas already experience the highest danger, and climate change magnifies it.

“Very high” danger days rise from around 20 per year to more than 70 by the 2050s.
By the 2080s, this could reach 110 days per year.

Midlands and North of England

Absolute danger remains lower than the south, but the likelihood of exceeding current danger levels rises sharply, especially in hot summers.

Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland

The increase is smaller in absolute terms, but still meaningful. Even a modest rise in danger can have real consequences in areas where firefighting resources are limited and upland fuels - heather, grass, peat - are widespread.

Spring vs Summer

More UK wildfires occur in spring, mainly due to visitor pressure, burning of vegetation, and dry fuels after winter. But the climate projections show the largest increase in fire danger in summer.

This means that even though the busiest ignition period remains spring, the most hazardous conditions are shifting into summer and early autumn - exactly when fuel loads on moorland are at their peak.

For land managers, this underlines the need for clearer seasonal planning based on real fire-weather data, not just historical patterns.

What Happens if Global Emissions Fall

The study compares a high-emissions pathway (RCP8.5) with a low-emissions scenario (RCP2.6).

Lower emissions substantially reduce the increase in fire danger.
But they do not eliminate the rise altogether.

Even with strong global action, southern and eastern England still see more danger days, and other regions still face a gradual increase.

Why This Matters for Moorland Management

Most UK wildfires are started by people - a careless barbecue, a spark from machinery, or deliberate ignition. But once a fire starts, the weather and fuel conditions determine how far it will go. As climate change dries out the vegetation faster and more often, the window for safe land management narrows.

For upland areas managed for wildlife, grazing, sporting interests, and peatland restoration, this has several practical implications:

1. Fuel Loads Will Matter More

Hot, dry spells allow fire to spread through heather, grasses, and surface litter. Managed burning and cutting help reduce fuel build-up, creating natural firebreaks and preventing small fires becoming major incidents.

2. Emergency Response Planning Needs Updating

More frequent high-danger periods mean fire crews and rural teams will need clearer early-warning systems, better access planning, and stronger partnerships with land managers.

3. Peatlands Become More Vulnerable

Dry peat is extremely difficult to extinguish. Climate change increases the risk of deep-burning peat fires, which release large amounts of carbon and damage habitats that take decades to recover.

4. Rural Communities Face Greater Pressure

As danger levels rise, communities living near moorland, often with limited infrastructure, face higher risk to property, livelihoods, and landscapes.

Takeaway

Climate change will make wildfire danger more frequent across the UK, making careful fuel management, preparedness, and practical land stewardship more important than ever for those living on and caring for moorland.