Defra Ignores Wildfire Science

A major new scientific study confirms what many in the land management and wildfire research community have long warned about wildfire. Simply put, wildfire risk in the UK is increasing sharply as fuel moisture levels across different vegetation types become synchronised. The findings raise serious questions about Defra’s approach to wildfire and peatland management.

A Landmark UK Wildfire Study (Ivison et al., 2025)

The paper ‘Unprecedented UK heatwave harmonised drivers of fuel moisture creating extreme temperate wildfire risk’ was published before Defra decided to extend restrictions on heather burning. It presents field data from England and Scotland, including during the record-breaking 2022 heatwave when UK temperatures exceeded 40°C for the first time.

We even sent the paper to the Defra Peatland Protection Team on 2nd September, before it made its announcement – so we are certain Defra had it before making its decision – but chose to ignore it.  

Whilst the work was published shortly before Defra's decision was announced, preliminary findings were already being widely discussed at conferences. This includes at the 2024 UK Wildfire Conference attended by Defra’s peatland protection team. So these results were wildly anticipated within the scientific and policy world.

Who Are the Authors?

This research was carried out by the UK’s leading wildfire scientists whose work underpins much of the UK’s wildfire evidence base. Many are also involved in the IDEAL UK FIRE initiative, a major government funded programme studying fuel management and wildfire mitigation.

That raises a serious question. Did Defra engage with these academic experts, or consider their emerging findings, before drafting the 2025 burning regulations? If not, why not?

Key Findings

• Normally, wildfire spread in the UK is in part limited by different vegetation types drying out at different rates.

• During the 2022 heatwave, this control broke down. All fuel types became simultaneously and abnormally dry, a process the authors call 'harmonisation.'

• Simulated fire behaviour under these conditions showed: - Rate of spread more than doubled versus normal summer conditions.

  - Flame lengths exceeded 1.5 m (beyond safe limits for hand-tool firefighting).

  - Ignition probability reached approximately 87%.

• The authors conclude that future heatwaves will make humid UK regions, including upland peatlands, acutely prone to wildfire.

Why This Matters

This peer-reviewed study provides robust scientific evidence that wildfire risk is escalating in the UK. The risk is not hypothetical. Nor is it a “Mediterranean-only” issue. The risk is a measurable and growing UK threat.

The results corroborate earlier studies such as Belcher et al. (2021) and the London Wildfire Workshop (2023). Each time fuel load is identified as the key controllable risk factor.

Defra has a clear duty to make inquiries:

1. Did it fail to consider the established relationships between weather, fuel moisture and wildfire risk?

2. Did it assume that wildfire risk is immaterial to peatland management decisions?

3. Did it fail to consider this point during the consultation because it had already made up its mind?

The Takeaway

This study underlines the urgent need for practical, science-based fuel management, including controlled burning where appropriate, to reduce wildfire intensity and protect public safety.

It also raises legitimate questions for Defra:

1. Were the UK’s leading wildfire scientists consulted?

2. Were their views properly considered?

3. If not, why were such crucial voices left out of the evidence base?

The science is now clear. Defra cannot continue to ignore the wildfire warning.

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