Understanding Fire Risk in Scotland’s Uplands: A Summary of the James Hutton Institute Study
- Rob Beeson
- Oct 7
- 2 min read
A 2023 study by the James Hutton Institute provides the most detailed picture yet of wildfire risk across Scotland’s main habitat types, including heather moorlands and peatlands that dominate the uplands.
The report analysed satellite data from 2013–2022 and found almost 60,000 hectares of land had burned during that period, with two-thirds of all fires occurring in the Highlands. Around 96% of all fires affected heather, bog, and acid grassland vegetation, underlining that upland habitats are at greatest risk.
Fires were highly seasonal, with nearly 80% occurring in March and April. The study confirmed that most large wildfires happen in spring, when dead vegetation provides dry, flammable fuel. Smaller burns detected more recently were likely to be controlled management burns (muirburn) rather than uncontrolled wildfires.
The researchers highlighted that traditional managed burning plays a useful role in reducing fuel build-up. Where moorland is left unmanaged, the accumulation of dry vegetation, combined with warmer, drier weather and greater public access, increases the likelihood and severity of wildfire.
A key finding was that existing fire danger forecasting systems (such as the Canadian Fire Weather Index) perform poorly on heather moorlands. They were designed for pine forests and fail to account for the unique structure and moisture behaviour of moorland vegetation. This limits their reliability for predicting wildfire risk in the British uplands.
Looking ahead, climate projections show a likely rise in summer fire danger, especially with drier and warmer conditions extending the fire season into late summer and autumn. Increased woodland planting on uplands could also heighten future risk if not planned with fire danger in mind.
The study concludes that Scotland’s wildfire threat is likely to grow unless integrated management continues, combining responsible burning, grazing, vegetation control, and local fire planning. Traditional land management practices remain central to keeping both landscapes and communities safe.
Takeaway: Sound, active management of moorland vegetation, including controlled burning, is essential to reduce fuel loads and limit the growing threat of wildfires across the uplands.
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