68% Wrong: The Wildlife Trusts’ Wildfire Myth

The Wildlife Trusts circulated a parliamentary briefing to members of the House of Lords ahead of their debate on wildfire risk in June. The document, which the Moorland Association can now share, claimed that “68% of wildfires in the English uplands are caused by managed burning that got out of control.”

That statistic is false. It utterly misrepresents the data set they got the number from. It is clearly aimed at unfairly blaming upland managers for wildfires. Of even more concern, The Wildlife Trusts decided not to change this despite being warned by the Earl of Caithness of their error. For an organisation that says it wants to work with land managers, that is shocking.

The Natural England data they were using shows the real figure is closer to 5-10%, entirely within normal international standards for prescribed burning. To their credit, no peers repeated this claim during the debate, a testament to their diligence in checking the facts.

Setting the Record Straight

The Wildlife Trusts, the national umbrella body for the local Wildlife Trust charities, distributed a briefing to members of the House of Lords ahead of the debate on wildfire in June. Among its claims was a startling statistic: that “68% of wildfires in the English uplands are caused by managed burning that got out of control.”

That figure is not true. It comes from a partial and misunderstood dataset in Natural England’s 2020 Evidence Review (NEER014). This analysed Fire and Rescue Service records from 2009–2017. Only about 12% of all wildfires had a recorded cause, and within that small subset, 68% of upland incidents were attributed to escaped management burns.

When all incidents are considered, escaped burns account for just 5–10% of upland wildfires. Even Natural England warned that the 68% statistic “should not be interpreted as nationally representative.” That crucial caveat was omitted from The Wildlife Trusts’ briefing.

What the Real Data Shows

Across England, the overwhelming majority of wildfires are caused by:

- Arson and deliberate ignition

- Accidental human activity, such as barbecues, campfires and discarded cigarettes.

These account for well over 80% of all wildfires. Escaped management burns are a small and well-understood minority. Almost all of these are minor incidents extinguished swiftly by trained personnel already on site.

When the full dataset is considered, the true figure, around 5–10%, aligns with other nations around the world. Whilst the UK number appears slightly higher than some nations, the way we record incidents is not always comparable.

For example, in the United States an ‘escaped’ burn only refers to a prescribed fire that leaves the planned control area and requires additional suppression resources beyond those originally assigned.

This means that small overruns or spot fires that are immediately brought back under control are not classified as escapes. In contrast, any managed fire that prompts a call to the Fire and Rescue Service in the UK is logged as an incident. As a result, the UK’s statistics inevitably overstate the apparent proportion of ‘escaped burns’ compared with other nations.

Why Accuracy Matters

Repeating a misinterpreted statistic in a parliamentary briefing is not a trivial mistake. It risks misleading policymakers, undermines trust between conservation groups and land managers. Most serious of all, it distracts from real solutions to wildfire risk.

Fortunately, the members of the House of Lords who received the briefing appear to have checked their facts. None used the false 68% figure during the debate. That restraint is commendable and underlines the importance of verifying evidence before using it to shape policy.

Meanwhile, upland managers, gamekeepers and fire officers continue to work side by side each year to reduce wildfire risk. They do this through fuel management, habitat restoration and tightly controlled burns conducted under code and supervision.

A small, quickly contained escape during such a burn is not comparable to a full-scale wildfire that burns for days. Managed burning, when carried out responsibly, reduces the build-up of dangerous fuel and creates vital firebreaks that can stop larger, uncontrolled fires before they start.

A Call for Honesty and an Apology

Everyone involved in wildfire policy shares the same goal; protecting wildlife, people and peatlands. That shared purpose depends on accuracy and accountability.

The Wildlife Trusts’ “68%” claim misrepresents Natural England’s findings and unfairly blames those working hardest to prevent wildfires. Responsibility for this error lies with the organisation’s national leadership.

We therefore call on Matthew Browne, Head of Public Affairs at The Wildlife Trusts, as the individual most responsible for authorising and circulating this briefing, to publicly apologise for misleading Parliament and the public.

Mr Browne should also issue a correction to all recipients of the briefing and reaffirm The Wildlife Trusts’ commitment to evidence-led communication. Only then can trust be rebuilt between conservation bodies and the land managers who are essential partners in reducing wildfire risk.

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