Predator Numbers and Ground-Nesting Bird Declines

This is a summary of the scientific paper: Ten years on from a predator removal experiment in the English uplands: Changes in numbers of ground-nesting birds and predators

A recent study revisited a predator control experiment in North Northumberland that had taken place in the early 2000s. It looked at what happened to ground-nesting birds when legal predator control stopped - and the results are sobering.

When Carrion Crows and Red Foxes were managed, ground-nesting birds saw their breeding success treble. Numbers of species like Lapwing, Golden Plover, Curlew and Red Grouse all increased during the initial experiment.

But ten years after predator control ended, this is what happened to population numbers:

• Fox: 78% increase

• Carrion Crow: 127% increase

• Black Grouse: local extinction

• Grey Partridge: local extinction

• Red Grouse: 71% decline

• Golden Plover:  81% decline

• Snipe: 76% decline

• Curlew: 24% decline

• Lapwing: 58% decline

These changes happened despite the habitat itself staying broadly the same.

These declines aren’t isolated. They reflect wider national trends in the UK, where generalist predators have increased sharply in the absence of apex predators and traditional land management.

The study concludes that ongoing predator control - alongside longer-term changes to make habitats less favourable to predators - may be necessary to protect vulnerable moorland birds.

Takeaway: Without effective predator management, key moorland bird species - including those valued by rural communities - are likely to continue declining, regardless of habitat quality.

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