RSPB Misses Key Bird Recovery Targets at Lake Vyrnwy

A new report reveals how the RSPB's 2007 management plan for Lake Vyrnwy set specific targets for curlew and black grouse that have largely been unmet, despite considerable taxpayer funding.

RSPB's 2007 Targets for Curlew and Black Grouse

The RSPB's long-term ecological vision for Lake Vyrnwy, outlined in its 2007 management plan, aimed to improve the condition and extent of the special features identified in its SSSI, SPA, and SAC designations. This included ambitious targets for specific bird species:

• Curlew: Breeding/territorial curlew numbers on the reserve were targeted to increase from two pairs to a five-year mean of five pairs.

• Black Grouse: A five-year mean of 15 lekking black grouse on the reserve, with an annual productivity of two to three young per hen.

• Red Grouse: Red grouse numbers were targeted to drop no lower than a five-year mean of 60 pairs. The plan also aimed to maintain and increase hen harrier, peregrine, and merlin populations.

Achievement of Targets and Bird Population Changes at Lake Vyrnwy

Data from 1980 to 2024 reveals a long-term decline in curlew numbers within the Lake Vyrnwy reserve, and black grouse numbers have failed to achieve the target set in the 2007 Management Plan, potentially indicating a long-term decline.

• Curlew:
  

  • Between 1978 and 1986, when the RSPB held only an advisory role, the curlew population averaged 24 pairs a year (12-32 pairs).

  • Following changes in moorland management, numbers declined in the 1990s, averaging two pairs between 2000 and 2006.

  • The RSPB's target of a five-year mean of five pairs was consistently missed, with numbers often hovering around 1-3 adult birds or pairs from 2007 to 2024, and only one pair nesting in 2024 (not on the RSPB farm).

  • A 2015 study noted that curlew productivity only met or exceeded the maintenance target in two years between 1996 and 2006, suggesting the habitat became too uniform.
    

• Black Grouse:  

  • Numbers for lekking males fluctuated but generally remained well below the 2007 target of 15, often being in single digits (e.g., 5 in 2015, 1 in 2017, 0 in 2018, 2 in 2021, 3 in 2022, 7 in 2024).
    

• Other Species and General Decline: 
  

  • The 2016 management plan showed that hen harrier pairs decreased from 4 to 3 between 2015 and 2016, and merlin decreased from 1 to 0.

  • In 2021, a bid for National Lottery funding, which the RSPB was part of, described the state of the reserve in "dramatically negative language". It warned that without serious interventions, curlew, black grouse, and merlin could cease to appear as breeding species, and red grouse and hen harriers within the next decade. This bid, if accurate, appears to be an admission of management failure.

  • An experienced birdwatcher touring the reserve in June 2024 found it to be an "avian desert" with very few birds, noting the absence of red or black grouse despite efforts, and only one curlew nesting site found on a neighboring tenanted farm. This contrasts sharply with an RAF station having more breeding curlews than the RSPB's 10,000-hectare reserve.

Context of Broader Bird Population Changes and Management Challenges

The decline at Lake Vyrnwy is situated within a broader context of significant bird population declines across the UK and Wales:

• The UK Government has described Britain as "one of the most nature-depleted countries in the world".

• Since the end of the Second World War, wildlife has declined in the UK, with an acceleration in recent years.

• Between 1983-85 and 2002, a survey on the Berwyn (which includes Lake Vyrnwy) showed many ground-nesting bird species declined, with red grouse numbers halving and curlew found on 57% fewer plots, while carrion crow numbers increased by 526%.

• As of 2024, 70 species are on the Birds of Conservation Concern Red List, almost double the number in 25 years.

• In 2023, an ornithologist noted the "disastrous decline" in curlew breeding populations, attributing a significant driver to the "burgeoning corvid population".

The sources suggest several factors contributing to the RSPB's struggle to meet its targets and the overall decline at Lake Vyrnwy:

• Changes in Management Regimes: 
  

  • Grazing: The number of breeding ewes on the RSPB-managed farm was significantly reduced from 7,500 to around 1,500, and cattle numbers were limited. This reduction in grazing, coupled with relatively limited mowing, has led to an increased fuel load and impacts vegetation and animal life, potentially negatively affecting biodiversity and ground-nesting birds.

  • Controlled Burning: Controlled burning, which provides a mosaic of vegetation, ceased in 2003 due to concerns from water companies about water discolouration. Studies suggest controlled burning can benefit curlew and golden plover prevalence, increase biodiversity, and maintain higher water tables. The lack of burning or extensive mowing means vegetation is often too tall for grouse or curlew.
    

• Predator Control: 
  

  • The GWCT claims that predator control at Lake Vyrnwy has not been carried out effectively.

  • While the RSPB does carry out predator control (e.g., foxes to protect ground-nesting birds), its aim is broader holistic solutions. However, the 2005 specification for the Berwyn explicitly stated that predator populations should be at a level that "does not pose a threat to the maintenance of healthy populations of ground-nesting birds".

  • The rising numbers of generalist predators like carrion crows and foxes are noted as a major concern for ground-nesting birds. Studies suggest effective predator control is essential for many red-listed ground-nesting birds.
    

• Tick Management: The RSPB at Lake Vyrnwy seems to have no deliberate tick management strategy. Under-grazing contributes to increased tick numbers, which negatively impact ground-nesting birds like curlew. In contrast, many grouse moors actively manage ticks through grazing, dipping, and bracken management.

• Bracken Management: The RSPB's long-term, low-intensity strategy for bracken management relies on tree planting to shade it out, a method that has not been experimentally tested and may take many years to show results. Meanwhile, bracken is spreading rapidly at Lake Vyrnwy, increasing tick loads and reducing conservation value. Most English grouse moors use more active methods like spraying, rolling, baling, or grazing to control bracken.

• Funding and Approach: The report suggests that while the RSPB's blanket bog restoration is impressive, it has been largely carried out by contractors and paid for by taxpayers, and is not unique or pioneering compared to other moorland owners who began rewetting earlier using their own staff. The substantial taxpayer money received by the RSPB for Lake Vyrnwy is questioned given the outcomes for habitat and birdlife since 1977.

Contrast with Other Land Management Regimes

The report highlights that many estates and farms in Wales and the wider UK have demonstrated successful models where viable food-producing businesses coexist with improving habitats and supporting or increasing wildlife, including red-listed birds, often with significantly less taxpayer money than the RSPB receives.

• Grouse Moors: English grouse moors, which are commercial operations, have high densities of red-listed waders (curlew, lapwing, snipe, redshank) and raptors like hen harriers and merlins. Their management often includes heather management, effective predator control, and rewetting.

• Farmer Clusters: Farmer clusters, like Martin Down, have achieved significant biodiversity gains over larger, landscape-scale areas by collaborating on habitat creation, pollinator habitat, predator control, and community engagement. The Bro Cors Caron SMS in Wales demonstrated that farmer-led schemes could increase biodiversity and be cost-effective, despite bureaucratic challenges.

• Individual Farms: Cruglas Farm in Wales, a 300-hectare livestock farm, has seen "staggering" outcomes for birdlife, recording 146 species (80 breeding) through extensive habitat improvements (hedging, woodlands, ponds, wetlands, bird feeders, nest boxes) and active predator control (mink, grey squirrels, foxes, crows).

These examples suggest that commercial landowners, when incentivized and involved in conservation plans, can deliver landscape-scale initiatives that yield positive and cost-effective outcomes for nature.

In contrast, the RSPB's management at Lake Vyrnwy, despite the vast sums spent, has seen declines in target red-listed species, raising questions about value for money and the effectiveness of their current approach.

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