Scientists Warn: Ending Grouse Moor Management Could Accelerate Bird Declines

Paper: Predicting the Combined Impacts of Future Management and Climate Change on Moorland Bird Species

Britain's moorlands are facing a perfect storm. New research reveals that stopping traditional moorland management while climate change accelerates could devastate populations of iconic upland birds - with red grouse numbers potentially plummeting by 80% within decades.

So what would happen if we stopped managing the moors altogether?

Scientists from Durham, Newcastle, and SRUC set out to answer this question, and their findings should concern anyone who cares about Britain's upland wildlife.

What the Research Discovered

The team analyzed data from over 8,000 two-kilometer squares across Britain, examining how three key species respond to both moorland management and climate conditions:

• Red Grouse - the signature bird of managed moorland

• Curlew - a red-listed wader in serious decline

• Golden Plover - another threatened upland specialist

Climate Change Is Already the Biggest Threat

Modelling suggests that even if we maintain current management practices, climate change alone will hammer these populations.

By the 2040s, Britain's uplands will be roughly 0.8°C warmer in summer, with 20% more winter rainfall. Under these conditions, the models predict:

• Red grouse: 16-26% decline

• Curlew: 10-16% decline

• Golden plover: 22-28% decline

And it gets worse by the 2080s.

Why Active Management Matters

The research found that controlled moorland burning (used here as a stand-in for overall grouse-moor management) creates conditions these birds need. At typical management levels (about 10 % of ground burned):

• Red grouse numbers are 2.3 times higher than on unmanaged land

• Curlew populations are 1.4 times higher

• Golden plover numbers are 1.1 times higher

This isn't about intensive burning everywhere, even moderate management makes a significant difference.

The Worst-Case Scenario: Losing Both

When researchers modelled what happens if we stop management AND face climate change, the results were stark:

By the 2040s:

• Red grouse: down 52-62%

• Curlew: down 25-32%

• Golden plover: down 30-37%

By the 2080s:

• Red grouse: down up to 80%

• Curlew: down 15-26%

• Golden plover: down 27-34%

The most actively managed English moors, like the North Yorkshire Moors and Pennines, face the steepest losses. Some areas could lose 90% of their red grouse and 70% of golden plover within just two decades.

What This Means for Britain's Uplands

The Regional Picture Matters

Not all moorlands face the same future:

High-risk areas: Heavily managed English moors in warmer regions face the sharpest declines if management stops.

More resilient areas: Northern regions like the Grampians and Cheviots, with cooler, wetter conditions, may better support curlew populations.

Already lightly managed areas: Western uplands may see smaller changes from management shifts.

The research assumes heather moorland continues to exist. If unmanaged areas revert to scrub or woodland, red grouse, curlew, and golden plover would decline even more dramatically, potentially disappearing from many areas entirely.

What Can Be Done?

The researchers emphasize that adaptive management is key. Strategies that might help include:

• Maintaining appropriate levels of active management tailored to local conditions

• Peatland restoration to improve habitat resilience

• Strategic water-level management

• Targeted predator control where necessary

• Regular monitoring to track how birds respond to changing conditions

Different regions need different approaches. What works in northern Scotland won't necessarily work in the warmer English uplands.

The Bottom Line

This research delivers a clear message: we can't view moorland management and climate change in isolation.

Active, carefully adapted moorland management isn't just about preserving traditional land use, it's increasingly essential for giving upland birds any chance of surviving climate change.

Without it, some of Britain's most iconic moorland species could largely vanish from our uplands within our lifetimes.

The choice facing land managers, policymakers, and conservationists isn't between management or pristine wilderness. It's between thoughtful, adaptive management that helps wildlife cope with climate change - or watching these remarkable birds disappear from landscapes they've inhabited for thousands of years.

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