The Real Story of Hen Harrier Recovery: Our Response to The Northern England Raptor Forum
- Rob Beeson
- 6 hours ago
- 6 min read
Quick Facts
141 chicks fledged successfully in 2023 (vs. zero successful nests in 2013)
1,150% population increase between 2016 and 2023
80% of successful nests are on driven grouse moors
Both Special Protection Areas have hit conservation targets
England's Hen Harrier population has reached its highest point in 200 years, yet you wouldn't know it after reading recent claims made by the Northern England Raptor Forum (NERF). While debate rages about upland conservation, the data tells a remarkable success story that deserves recognition.
This isn't opinion. It's confirmed by comprehensive monitoring and official data from Natural England and supported by the RSPB's own 2023 survey.
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The Context: Addressing Recent Criticism
A recent open letter from the Northern England Raptor Forum (NERF) to Defra, dated 20 October 2025, painted a stark picture: illegal killing continues unabated, collaborative conservation has failed, and only government-imposed licensing can save England's Hen Harriers.
We need to set the record straight. Not through rhetoric, but through verifiable facts recorded in official reports and scientific data.
An evidence-based discussion is essential if we are to build on recent hard-won successes and secure the future of the Hen Harrier in England.
Record-Breaking Recovery: The Numbers That Matter
The statistics tell a story of extraordinary recovery:
2023 marked a historic milestone. A record 141 Hen Harrier chicks fledged successfully in England. To understand the scale of this achievement, consider that just a decade earlier in 2013, there were no successful nests at all.
The population surge has been dramatic. Data from Natural England shows a 1,150% increase in the Hen Harrier population between 2016 and 2023. This represents one of the UK's most significant conservation success stories.
Conservation targets are being exceeded. England's two Special Protection Areas (SPAs) designated specifically for Hen Harriers have now hit their favourable conservation targets, a clear indicator of sustainable recovery.
Where Recovery Is Happening
Here's where the data becomes particularly significant for understanding what's working.
Natural England's figures show that 80% of successful Hen Harrier nests are on driven grouse moors, even though these moors represent only half of the available suitable habitat.
This concentration of success challenges simplistic narratives. If these landscapes were defined by systematic criminality, how could they simultaneously be the primary engine of the species' recovery?
The evidence points not to a problem, but to a proven conservation model in action.
What Drove the Recovery: The Brood Management Success
The recent letter suggests that the Defra-led Brood Management Trial "failed miserably." The evidence from government agencies and scientific bodies demonstrates the opposite.
The trial, part of the broader Hen Harrier Action Plan, became a cornerstone of the species' recent recovery.
What the Official Evaluation Found
The official evaluation led by Natural England and a subsequent report by the British Trust for Ornithology (BTO) reached clear conclusions:
Direct breeding success increased. The trial directly led to more Hen Harriers successfully breeding on grouse moors.
Confidence building was key. The most likely reason for the population increase was the confidence the scheme gave moorland managers that harrier impacts could be managed. This led to increased "settlement" and survival rates for the birds.
Breeding attempts nearly quadrupled. The number of breeding attempts in England almost quadrupled during the trial period.
This official conclusion is critical: the population surge was driven by building confidence and trust with land managers. This directly contradicts claims that the relationship is defined by unending, systemic conflict.
Why the Trial Ended
The trial wasn't "abandoned" due to failure. As a trial, it ran for a set period to gather evidence.
Upon completion, The Moorland Association applied for a conservation licence to continue this successful work. Natural England chose not to approve the application due to a disagreement over the necessity of satellite tagging, a condition we believe is no longer required, not because the scheme itself was ineffective.
The results speak for themselves: Brood-managed birds have a 44% survival rate from fledging to the following May, compared to 24% for their wild-reared counterparts.
Persecution: What the Data Actually Shows
The Moorland Association maintains a zero-tolerance policy for raptor persecution and unreservedly condemns all wildlife crime. This is non-negotiable.
However, the narrative of widespread, systematic criminality across the entire sector is not supported by official data. Illegal killing is carried out by a rogue few, and it's a gross misrepresentation to tarnish the entire community of law-abiding land managers with their actions.
The Evidence on Wildlife Crime
Long-term data provides context. Only 3% of bird crime is committed by gamekeepers, according to long-term monitoring data.
Recent convictions tell a story. According to the National Wildlife Crime Unit, of the four convictions for bird crime last year, none were gamekeepers.
How Statistics Can Mislead
Reports that suggest persecution is rampant often rely on flawed methodology to inflate their claims:
"Confirmed or suspected" conflation. This vague language combines a small number of proven incidents with a much larger number of unproven inferences, creating a misleading impression of scale.
Missing satellite tags aren't automatic proof. A tag that stops transmitting isn't proof of a crime. Tags fail for technical reasons, and birds die of natural causes including starvation, predation by other raptors, or disease.
The Ewing study misrepresentation. The Ewing et al. (2023) paper is frequently cited but misunderstood. Its headline claim that illegal killing accounts for "up to three-quarters of annual mortality" refers specifically to a small subset of birds aged between one and two years, by which time most natural mortality has already occurred.
The study's actual data shows the absolute difference in survival to age two between Orkney (which has no grouse moors) and the mainland is a much smaller 9%.
This isn't merely an academic disagreement. The consistent misrepresentation of scientific findings inflames debate, erodes trust, and distracts from collaborative work proven to be effective.
Why Licensing Would Be Counterproductive
In light of the evidence, calling for a blanket licensing scheme is both disproportionate and counter-intuitive.
It punishes success. The proposal would penalize an entire sector for the actions of a few, while ignoring the verifiable fact that the current partnership-based approach has delivered a 200-year population high.
It risks dismantling what works. Such a policy would risk destroying the framework of trust and cooperation that has proven so successful.
The results speak louder than rhetoric. The 200-year population high for Hen Harriers is direct proof that dialogue and collaboration work. The Hen Harrier Action Plan and the Brood Management Trial have been remarkably successful.
Policy should build on the proven success of partnership, not impose punitive measures that undermine the trust and goodwill central to the Hen Harrier's recovery.
Beyond Hen Harriers: A Biodiversity Success Story
Creating Havens for Vulnerable Species
Conservation work on grouse moors benefits more than just Hen Harriers. The habitat management and legal predator control conducted by gamekeepers create an environment where many of our most vulnerable upland species can thrive.
Ground-nesting waders are thriving. Vulnerable species such as curlew, lapwing, and golden plover, which are in steep decline elsewhere, maintain healthy populations on grouse moors.
Golden Eagles benefit from cooperation. The successful South of Scotland Golden Eagle Project relies on cooperation with gamekeepers who manage the eagles' essential prey base.
Other raptors flourish too. Buzzards and red kites are also thriving on moorland managed for grouse.
As numerous scientific papers have indicated, these managed landscapes "have become Britain's best bird reserves."
Looking Forward: Building on Success
What the Evidence Tells Us
The data doesn't point to conservation failure. It reveals a remarkable success story for the Hen Harrier in England, driven by pragmatic and effective partnership between landowners, gamekeepers, and government agencies.
This collaborative approach, based on evidence and mutual respect, stands in stark contrast to divisive narratives that ignore progress, misrepresent data, and promote conflict.
A Shared Vision for England's Uplands
The future of England's uplands depends on a shared commitment to evidence over ideology.
The remarkable recovery of the Hen Harrier proves what's possible when we choose collaboration over conflict. We invite all parties to set aside divisive rhetoric, acknowledge this hard-won success, and join us in building a future where both iconic wildlife and rural communities can thrive together.
The path forward is clear: build on what works, celebrate proven success, and maintain the partnerships that have delivered results beyond what many thought possible just a decade ago.
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